BY BAYO OGUNMUPE
AT the moment, the rate of
inflation in Nigeria stands at 16 per cent. However, the floating of the naira
is a bold move to unshackle the Nigerian economy and position it on the path of
recovery from recession. Also, floating the naira has caused the stock market
to rebound. This will lead to the influx of foreign investment. The Nigerian
economy is as indefinable as Nigerians. Which is why Nigerians remain upbeat
and optimistic in the face of grievous hardship.
Indeed, Nigeria has been in recession for
more than a year. The 2014 revaluation of our economy as the largest in Africa
was a farce. Truly, poverty reeks all over the land as the human development
index for 2014 stood at 0.51 too low for oil rich Nigeria. This economic crunch
stems from low productivity in industry and agriculture. Consequently,
under-employment; mass unemployment and runaway inflation dominated the
economy. Another symptom of recession was low purchasing power among the
people. This is why Nigeria has not experienced real growth for many years.
Nigeria, as a classic model of a mismanaged
economy is studied in universities in Europe and North America. What we call
recession today is the climax of a progressive economic downturn that was never
addressed. The bugaboo about fuel subsidy removal is mere blackmail. The only
solution to fuel scarcity is for Nigeria to build refineries. Germany, Kenya
and Japan do not produce oil. But they all have refineries. Japan has 29
refineries. If we have refineries, we would not waste foreign exchange to
import petrol.
The solution to fuel scarcity is to ask
companies to tender for the building of refineries. Nigeria then buys 30 per
cent, allowing the core investors to own 60 per cent of each refinery; the
remainder goes to the stock exchange. Similarly, the solution to the foreign
exchange crisis is for the federal government to criminalize the sale of
foreign money in Nigeria. It is only in Nigeria that people peddle dollars and
euros on the streets. Money is changed only in the banks in Europe and North
America. In fact, nowhere in the world except Nigeria that you find a second
foreign exchange market. The foreign exchange black market should be outlawed.
Money laundering and round-tripping are done through the black market. This is
a case of government refusing to enforce the law, or their incapacity due to
intellectual weakness or mediocrity.
Also, the questions of total power failure
and low productivity we are experiencing now should be addressed. What we need
do to bring Nigeria out of recession is to restructure the country so that we
can return to happiness. Turn the geo-political zones to states and the present
states to local governments. That will liberate a lot of money wasted on the
bloated civil services.
If we fail to restructure, we shall not be
able to pay all the workers as our foreign exchange earnings from oil continue
to dwindle. Ekiti is the smallest state in the West. But its civil service is
enough to run the entire southwest zone when they become one single state.
Another way to tackle the recession is to
embrace agricultural production of our food stables instead of importing them.
Growing our small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is yet another area of escape.
But the manner, the Bank of Industry is handling the issues leaves much to be
desired. Naturally, the power and the numerical force of the Nigerian consumer
to drive SME growth is enormous.
The N10 billion youth Entrepreneurship
Support Programme is notable but not co-ordinated. A report from The Economist
Intelligence Unit suggests that stabilizing macro-economic policies; installing
a more transparent tax and customs system as well as reducing import barriers;
must be critically looked into to enhance productivity in our SMEs. The
vigorous participation of Fidelity Bank in the growth of the Micro Small Medium
Enterprises (MSME) is laudable as well. But ensuring the success of these
efforts lie in making one organization to supervise the programmes.
For such an organization we recommend the
establishment of the National Full Employment Plan (NAFEP). Backed by an Act of
National Assembly, NAFEP like the Marshall Plan of the USA, should make
agriculture and SME as the lodester of its industrialization programme. Thriving
on zero collateral and zero interest template, NAFEP should ensure the
participation of every financial institution in the land so as to extend it
nationwide. To frustrate the advent of the ghost worker syndrome. Introduce the
Personnel Payroll and Information System (IPPIS). This was mooted by Ngozi
Okonjo-Iweala in 2014. But our corruption prone mediocre leaders have not
implemented it since then. Through IPPIS and restructuring as advised, the
present cost of governance would be reduced by 60 per cent. Restructuring is
crucial to peace and stability in Nigeria, for Johnson Aguiyi Ironsi’s
unification decree has never been vacated by anyone since 1966.
National security is another issue troubling
the nation. Militancy from the Niger Delta Avengers, the Biafra agitators and
the menace of herdsmen are issues thrown up by the sheer incompetence of our
leaders.
Certainly, herdsmen are traders, they are
business owners abusing their privilege of being an ethnic group. Simple law
enforcement would destroy the menace. For the militants restructuring and
resource control will abate their destructive agitation. What we are certain
about is that there can neither be peace nor prosperity in Nigeria without
restructuring.
For power, housing and industrialization, our
leaders do not appear capable of tackling them. The minister of power should
diversify his measures. He should consult with Germany and ask them to build
fields of solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources for him. Without
power, we cannot develop. Let government divide Nigeria into East, the West –
meaning all land west of the Niger river. That is from Delta, through Oyo
ending in Kogi. Then allocate French, German and Japanese companies to build
those power stations in the North, East and West.
For housing the government is quibbling. This
is so because the way they are going, the rich will buy every house they build
and put out for sale. What should be done is build house to applicants who need
houses. Up till now Federal Government does not know that not every Nigerian
can own land in Abuja. All government houses should be for lease. Government
should not encourage the culture of owning houses, it should build house for
lease or rent. Those who want to own houses should build them by themselves.
The idea of house for all by the year 2020 is built on dishonesty. For building
materials or not, we have to rely on import substitution industries to survive.
Since the peace and tranquility of the nation
are threatened by the militants and herdsmen, we need a new security outfit
namely, Nigerian National Guard (NNG). This is necessary because Nigeria is
underpoliced. With 170 million people, we need one million and seven hundred
thousand policemen. Because of rampart corruption in the Nigeria Police Force,
a new security outfit will be salutary. This will augment the failing powers of
the police force. Moreover, NNG will not require foreign exchange to build. It
will be another way to absorb the unemployed.
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