Success as reward for working smart

                    By Bayo Ogunmupe

    Imagine a child born in the ghettos of Lagos, without money, only education up to school certificate level; no positive role models and perhaps with some inborn handicap, in clueless Nigeria engaged in Boko haram insurgency and banditry. Could this innocent child have succeeded by luck or class struggle? Of course success is personal. It can be about anything from being a well to do artist to raising good children and giving back our time and resources to the community.  However, let us create an archetype of success: a company chief executive, a moneybag, politically influential, able to impose his will on his society.

    Starting with the image of that hapless child, and you are asked to predict him becoming a version of that success archetype, what odds would you place on that happening? Definitely less than the odds of one percent. And if all the laws of physics aren't violated, the limiting factor must be one thing and one thing only: Knowledge. A similar argument was made by the Nobel prize winning physicist David Deutsch who said: Every thing possible according to the laws of physics has some probability of occurring and the only thing stopping its occurrence is the knowledge of how to actually do it. But sadly, it is impossible for one individual to have complete knowledge of everything; that which could prevent failure.

    Thus, thinking of success in any field is a matter of knowledge, and by extension, it's a matter of learning. But this question of knowledge brings us to the question - is this success a product of luck or agency? With close examination, the question itself contains the answer. Moving from one point to another requires actions now and then with those actions are guided by the person and his knowledge. Some people might start off more knowledgeable, others may have difficulty learning. But with enough determination, if it's probable, it is possible, no matter the odds and that makes it a matter of agency; that is to say you must have the skill and knowledge of the job and work hard and smart. Working with skill and knowledge are not enough, you must be smart.

    Those who are stock with bad circumstances don't always have complete agency. Either because they were not taught or because the broader outlook constitutes a restraint to that agency. However, the second bottleneck after knowledge is the personal power to create luck, no matter the odds. By the way, this is exactly what people with a high amount of agency and knowledge know, believe and do. Of course nobody develops agency on his own. Everyone is taught it, by an evolved culture whether in their family, their school or at their workplace. They could even unconsciously learn this through the groups they associate with on the internet- or simply by the survival demands of their physical environment. The child mentioned earlier has a slim chance of developing enough agency to become a successful chief executive.

    Street urchins need more luck to get started. They need certain pivots of awareness and knowledge that expands their horizons before they can even think of having such robust agency which can pull them through. And a person born to champions needs less luck because of agency habits instilled into them from birth. And the mere fact of having such parents is itself the trigger of luck that paves the way to their success. Thus, we can treat the relationship between success and luck  and agency as a positive feedback loop where luck leads to agency but the affirmation of agency creates luck in cycles that build on itself. Since knowledge is always the limiting factor, some knowledge needs to be inherited before you can gain your own knowledge through your personal lessons and trials. Therefore, it means the determinism of the past has shaped the present. In summary, it means you have to be lucky to be successful, but luck can be engineered. Being born by a well to do creates the agency to engineer luck. You can also engineer luck through prior preparation. It is those who prepare for luck who become lucky. Luck is the point where preparation meets opportunity.